Upper Bann: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Upper Bann: Overview

Projection: DUP seat

Implied MP at 2017:	David Simpson (DUP)
County/Area:	Armagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:	70,574
Turnout:	64.2%

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
DUP	19,987	44.1%
SF	13,716	30.3%
UUP	6,070	13.4%
SDLP	3,663	8.1%
Alliance	1,895	4.2%
Green	2	0.0%
OTH	1	0.0%
DUP Majority	6,271	13.8%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Upper Bann been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Upper Bann: Map

List of old seats forming part of Upper Bann

The old seat(s) needed are:

Fermanagh and South Tyrone
Lagan Valley
Newry and Armagh
Upper Bann

Old seat: Fermanagh and South Tyrone

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Fermanagh and South Tyrone				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	UUP Votes	SDLP Votes	DUP Votes	Alliance Votes	Green Votes	SF Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Loughgall	547	Newry and Armagh	194	25	0	4	3	163	0	0	389
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	The Birches	393	Upper Bann	144	17	0	4	2	119	0	0	286
Fermanagh and Omagh	Ballinamallard	2,092	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	1,032	66	0	9	8	509	0	0	1,624
Fermanagh and Omagh	Belcoo and Garrison	2,070	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	444	68	0	7	7	767	0	0	1,293
Fermanagh and Omagh	Belleek and Boa	2,276	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	704	79	0	8	8	638	0	0	1,437
Fermanagh and Omagh	Boho, Cleenish and Letterbreen	2,337	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	717	72	0	10	9	752	0	0	1,560
Fermanagh and Omagh	Brookeborough	1,859	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	445	36	0	7	6	624	0	0	1,118
Fermanagh and Omagh	Castlecoole	2,103	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	879	89	0	72	44	688	0	0	1,772
Fermanagh and Omagh	Derrygonnelly	2,036	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	636	81	0	8	8	713	0	0	1,446
Fermanagh and Omagh	Derrylin	1,874	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	463	71	0	7	7	774	0	0	1,322
Fermanagh and Omagh	Donagh	1,968	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	341	52	0	5	5	701	0	0	1,104
Fermanagh and Omagh	Ederney and Kesh	2,064	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	873	70	0	7	7	436	0	0	1,393
Fermanagh and Omagh	Erne	2,317	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	667	101	0	17	24	850	0	0	1,659
Fermanagh and Omagh	Florence Court and Kinawley	2,125	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	523	67	0	7	7	672	0	0	1,276
Fermanagh and Omagh	Irvinestown	2,118	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	830	96	0	9	9	798	0	0	1,742
Fermanagh and Omagh	Lisbellaw	2,200	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	948	33	0	14	8	625	0	0	1,628
Fermanagh and Omagh	Lisnarrick	1,955	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	850	66	0	12	13	708	0	0	1,649
Fermanagh and Omagh	Lisnaskea	1,811	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	440	67	0	7	7	950	0	0	1,471
Fermanagh and Omagh	Maguiresbridge	2,388	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	620	50	0	9	8	875	0	0	1,562
Fermanagh and Omagh	Newtownbutler	1,888	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	369	56	0	5	6	778	0	0	1,214
Fermanagh and Omagh	Portora	2,064	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	749	104	0	94	58	655	0	0	1,660
Fermanagh and Omagh	Rosslea	1,741	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	304	46	0	5	5	670	0	0	1,030
Fermanagh and Omagh	Rossorry	1,724	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	620	77	0	44	31	520	0	0	1,292
Fermanagh and Omagh	Tempo	2,055	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	792	74	0	7	7	442	0	0	1,322
Mid Ulster	Augher and Clogher	2,465	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	718	101	0	10	10	858	0	0	1,697
Mid Ulster	Aughnacloy	2,255	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	932	81	0	12	10	759	0	0	1,794
Mid Ulster	Ballygawley	1,908	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	538	82	0	8	8	853	0	0	1,489
Mid Ulster	Ballysaggart	1,954	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	1,030	136	0	79	15	1,110	0	0	2,370
Mid Ulster	Caledon	2,476	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	797	106	0	11	11	919	0	0	1,844
Mid Ulster	Castlecaulfield	1,633	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	503	72	0	7	7	628	0	0	1,217
Mid Ulster	Fivemiletown	2,113	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	888	57	0	11	9	653	0	0	1,618
Mid Ulster	Killyman	1,776	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	782	38	0	31	8	569	0	0	1,428
Mid Ulster	Killymeal	1,896	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	945	83	0	114	13	842	0	0	1,997
Mid Ulster	Moy	2,133	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	886	119	0	113	13	779	0	0	1,910
Mid Ulster	Moygashel	1,881	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	941	25	0	84	10	779	0	0	1,839
Mid Ulster	Mullaghmore	2,105	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	811	123	0	29	12	1,055	0	0	2,030
	Total	70,600		24,355	2,586	0	887	423	25,231	0	0	53,482

The full details of these calculations are given on the Fermanagh and South Tyrone seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Lagan Valley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Lagan Valley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Lagan Valley				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	UUP Votes	SDLP Votes	DUP Votes	Alliance Votes	Green Votes	SF Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Donaghcloney	81	Upper Bann	14	2	26	4	0	1	0	1	48
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Dromore	3,136	Down Mid	510	112	1,083	211	0	50	0	30	1,996
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Gransha	2,583	Down Mid	415	105	806	97	0	103	0	22	1,548
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Quilly	3,026	Down Mid	520	101	1,003	125	0	79	0	27	1,855
Belfast	Belvoir	303	Belfast South	13	28	79	28	0	15	0	3	166
Belfast	Dunmurry	910	Belfast West	52	108	262	79	0	54	0	9	564
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Ballinderry	2,705	Antrim South	223	139	958	150	0	102	0	22	1,594
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Ballymacash	2,301	Antrim South	192	132	880	146	0	15	0	19	1,384
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Ballymacbrennan	2,304	Down Mid	199	50	825	173	0	15	0	19	1,281
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Ballymacoss	3,078	Antrim South	223	124	1,317	189	0	22	0	28	1,903
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Blaris	2,211	Antrim South	330	60	795	123	0	19	0	24	1,351
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Derryaghy	2,628	Belfast West	175	283	835	273	0	171	0	27	1,764
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Dromara	2,451	Down Mid	220	59	993	168	0	18	0	23	1,481
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Drumbo	2,224	Belfast South	208	48	746	255	0	14	0	19	1,290
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Harmony Hill	2,267	Antrim South	208	154	709	175	0	102	0	20	1,368
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Hilden	2,460	Antrim South	191	73	1,004	179	0	161	0	28	1,636
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Hillhall	2,596	Antrim South	195	65	1,053	225	0	20	0	26	1,584
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Hillsborough	2,557	Down Mid	404	85	687	173	0	17	0	21	1,387
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Knockmore	2,531	Antrim South	179	167	1,159	148	0	20	0	25	1,698
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Lagan	2,350	Antrim South	396	70	736	108	0	17	0	22	1,349
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Lagan Valley	2,093	Antrim South	139	105	1,089	137	0	18	0	24	1,512
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Lambeg	2,302	Belfast West	213	64	984	171	0	42	0	25	1,499
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Lisnagarvey	2,233	Antrim South	156	140	948	98	0	16	0	20	1,378
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Maghaberry	2,713	Antrim South	290	91	1,180	157	0	67	0	25	1,810
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Magheralave	2,329	Antrim South	153	161	731	228	0	115	0	22	1,410
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Maze	2,221	Antrim South	370	52	678	145	0	16	0	21	1,282
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Moira	2,546	Antrim South	400	165	806	246	0	20	0	26	1,663
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Old Warren	2,408	Antrim South	138	152	1,323	114	0	22	0	29	1,778
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Ravernet	2,268	Down Mid	267	48	799	158	0	14	0	19	1,305
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Stonyford	415	Antrim South	26	26	125	13	0	20	0	3	213
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Wallace Park	2,515	Antrim South	247	160	993	276	0	64	0	27	1,767
Lisburn and Castlereagh	White Mountain	3,494	Antrim South	260	234	1,116	216	0	133	0	26	1,985
Newry, Mourne and Down	Ballyward	142	Down South	9	18	37	9	0	7	0	1	81
	Total	72,381		7,535	3,381	26,765	4,997	0	1,569	0	683	44,930

The full details of these calculations are given on the Lagan Valley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Newry and Armagh

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Newry and Armagh, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Newry and Armagh				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	UUP Votes	SDLP Votes	DUP Votes	Alliance Votes	Green Votes	SF Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Blackwatertown	3,833	Newry and Armagh	276	436	536	59	0	1,175	0	0	2,482
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Cathedral	3,047	Newry and Armagh	128	483	426	47	0	1,315	0	0	2,399
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Demesne	3,454	Newry and Armagh	200	502	483	78	0	1,153	0	0	2,416
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Hamiltonsbawn	3,479	Newry and Armagh	336	126	901	47	0	726	0	0	2,136
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Keady	3,500	Newry and Armagh	152	481	444	49	0	1,270	0	0	2,396
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Loughbrickland	622	Down South	50	41	133	23	0	121	0	0	368
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Loughgall	3,138	Newry and Armagh	269	148	916	47	0	640	0	0	2,020
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Mahon	88	Upper Bann	7	2	32	3	0	18	0	0	62
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Markethill	3,525	Newry and Armagh	387	150	922	53	0	818	0	0	2,330
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Navan	3,516	Newry and Armagh	259	358	556	52	0	941	0	0	2,166
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Richhill	3,449	Newry and Armagh	373	139	994	52	0	804	0	0	2,362
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Seagahan	3,664	Newry and Armagh	324	447	524	58	0	990	0	0	2,343
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Tandragee	3,437	Upper Bann	393	127	1,012	53	0	832	0	0	2,417
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	The Mall	3,239	Newry and Armagh	297	329	784	155	0	796	0	0	2,361
Newry, Mourne and Down	Abbey	2,418	Newry and Armagh	33	465	322	33	0	943	0	0	1,796
Newry, Mourne and Down	Ballybot	3,172	Newry and Armagh	42	645	448	45	0	1,256	0	0	2,436
Newry, Mourne and Down	Bessbrook	3,020	Newry and Armagh	117	263	394	43	0	1,430	0	0	2,247
Newry, Mourne and Down	Camlough	2,828	Newry and Armagh	70	252	292	32	0	1,127	0	0	1,773
Newry, Mourne and Down	Crossmaglen	2,752	Newry and Armagh	39	248	265	28	0	1,143	0	0	1,723
Newry, Mourne and Down	Damolly	2,360	Newry and Armagh	73	486	352	37	0	847	0	0	1,795
Newry, Mourne and Down	Drumalane	3,029	Newry and Armagh	41	721	404	41	0	1,067	0	0	2,274
Newry, Mourne and Down	Fathom	2,808	Newry and Armagh	34	579	342	35	0	941	0	0	1,931
Newry, Mourne and Down	Forkhill	2,802	Newry and Armagh	57	282	280	30	0	1,099	0	0	1,748
Newry, Mourne and Down	Mayobridge	297	Down South	15	64	41	5	0	79	0	0	204
Newry, Mourne and Down	Mullaghbane	2,835	Newry and Armagh	65	301	306	33	0	1,196	0	0	1,901
Newry, Mourne and Down	Newtownhamilton	2,709	Newry and Armagh	104	194	319	35	0	1,110	0	0	1,762
Newry, Mourne and Down	St Patrick's	2,514	Newry and Armagh	78	603	347	37	0	780	0	0	1,845
Newry, Mourne and Down	Whitecross	2,732	Newry and Armagh	204	182	399	43	0	1,049	0	0	1,877
	Total	78,267		4,423	9,054	13,174	1,253	0	25,666	0	0	53,570

The full details of these calculations are given on the Newry and Armagh seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Upper Bann

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Upper Bann, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Upper Bann				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	UUP Votes	SDLP Votes	DUP Votes	Alliance Votes	Green Votes	SF Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Aghagallon	3,406	Upper Bann	92	306	627	117	0	962	0	0	2,104
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Ballybay	3,006	Upper Bann	303	50	1,225	42	0	342	0	0	1,962
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Banbridge East	2,322	Down Mid	368	149	549	102	0	221	0	0	1,389
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Banbridge North	3,127	Down Mid	494	173	756	130	0	292	0	0	1,845
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Banbridge South	3,309	Down Mid	569	180	844	104	0	327	0	0	2,024
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Banbridge West	3,621	Down Mid	653	247	833	108	0	528	0	0	2,369
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Bleary	3,324	Upper Bann	442	97	1,020	96	0	298	0	0	1,953
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Brownlow	3,679	Upper Bann	147	422	861	39	0	1,253	0	0	2,722
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Corcrain	2,944	Upper Bann	69	332	711	35	0	1,122	0	0	2,269
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Craigavon Centre	3,347	Upper Bann	388	201	1,165	200	0	417	0	0	2,371
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Derrytrasna	3,365	Upper Bann	151	301	657	27	0	896	0	0	2,032
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Donaghcloney	3,208	Upper Bann	449	39	1,016	108	0	279	0	0	1,891
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Gilford	3,248	Upper Bann	543	249	725	76	0	487	0	0	2,080
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Kernan	3,255	Upper Bann	436	99	1,068	148	0	316	0	0	2,067
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Killycomain	2,771	Upper Bann	255	60	1,154	121	0	338	0	0	1,928
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Knocknashane	2,970	Upper Bann	265	41	1,068	148	0	291	0	0	1,813
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Lough Road	3,326	Upper Bann	75	301	603	55	0	1,098	0	0	2,132
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Loughbrickland	2,021	Down South	305	134	417	44	0	212	0	0	1,112
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Magheralin	3,370	Upper Bann	291	81	988	183	0	344	0	0	1,887
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Mahon	3,062	Upper Bann	363	57	1,197	61	0	337	0	0	2,015
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Mourneview	3,254	Upper Bann	197	61	1,219	102	0	579	0	0	2,158
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Parklake	3,392	Upper Bann	73	295	659	71	0	1,177	0	0	2,275
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Shankill	3,758	Upper Bann	74	312	737	46	0	1,435	0	0	2,604
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	The Birches	3,350	Upper Bann	369	166	1,027	33	0	455	0	0	2,050
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Waringstown	3,732	Upper Bann	530	45	1,190	123	0	320	0	0	2,208
	Total	80,167		7,901	4,398	22,316	2,319	0	14,326	0	0	51,260

The full details of these calculations are given on the Upper Bann seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Upper Bann

The new seat of Upper Bann is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	UUP Votes	SDLP Votes	DUP Votes	Alliance Votes	Green Votes	SF Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Upper Bann
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Aghagallon	3,289	Upper Bann	92	306	627	117	0	962	0	0	2,104
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Ballybay	3,068	Upper Bann	303	50	1,225	42	0	342	0	0	1,962
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Bleary	3,054	Upper Bann	442	97	1,020	96	0	298	0	0	1,953
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Brownlow	4,257	Upper Bann	147	422	861	39	0	1,253	0	0	2,722
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Corcrain	3,548	Upper Bann	69	332	711	35	0	1,122	0	0	2,269
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Craigavon Centre	3,710	Upper Bann	388	201	1,165	200	0	417	0	0	2,371
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Derrytrasna	3,179	Upper Bann	151	301	657	27	0	896	0	0	2,032
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Donaghcloney	75	Lagan Valley	14	2	26	4	0	1	0	1	48
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Donaghcloney	2,959	Upper Bann	449	39	1,016	108	0	279	0	0	1,891
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Gilford	3,251	Upper Bann	543	249	725	76	0	487	0	0	2,080
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Kernan	3,233	Upper Bann	436	99	1,068	148	0	316	0	0	2,067
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Killycomain	3,016	Upper Bann	255	60	1,154	121	0	338	0	0	1,928
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Knocknashane	2,836	Upper Bann	265	41	1,068	148	0	291	0	0	1,813
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Lough Road	3,334	Upper Bann	75	301	603	55	0	1,098	0	0	2,132
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Magheralin	2,952	Upper Bann	291	81	988	183	0	344	0	0	1,887
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Mahon	91	Newry and Armagh	7	2	32	3	0	18	0	0	62
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Mahon	3,151	Upper Bann	363	57	1,197	61	0	337	0	0	2,015
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Mourneview	3,375	Upper Bann	197	61	1,219	102	0	579	0	0	2,158
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Parklake	3,558	Upper Bann	73	295	659	71	0	1,177	0	0	2,275
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Shankill	4,072	Upper Bann	74	312	737	46	0	1,435	0	0	2,604
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Tandragee	3,531	Newry and Armagh	393	127	1,012	53	0	832	0	0	2,417
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	The Birches	377	Fermanagh and South Tyrone	144	17	0	4	2	119	0	0	286
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	The Birches	3,206	Upper Bann	369	166	1,027	33	0	455	0	0	2,050
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon	Waringstown	3,452	Upper Bann	530	45	1,190	123	0	320	0	0	2,208
	Total	70,574		6,070	3,663	19,987	1,895	2	13,716	0	1	45,334

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Upper Bann. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.